At the end of 2017, the layout of OLEDs in major panel manufacturers has become the focus of the industry. However, due to the high cost of its production line and the efforts to improve the technology of LCDs, it seems that LCD will continue to occupy the mainstream market position in a short period of time. .
Organic Light Emitting Diode (OLED), with its high contrast and high color display characteristics, gradually increases its sound level, and with Apple's iPhone X using OLED panels, whether it is large or small. In the market, the volume of OLED panels has been pushed to the highest level ever.
However, after the iPhone X was launched less than half a year ago, rumors of discontinued sales due to unsatisfactory sales, coupled with the liquid crystal display (LCD) camp, actively developed various technologies to enhance color contrast and achieved success. The special advantages of OLED panels have faded. At present, it seems that whether it is a large-size or small-size market, LCD will continue to dominate the old age in a short period of time.
2018 small size OLED is oversupply
After Apple's iPhone X uses OLED panels, many manufacturers are rushing to invest in small-size OLED panels. However, the iPhone X sales situation is not as enthusiastic as expected, and there are rumors that it will be discontinued in 2018. In the case of Chinese manufacturers continue to increase the volume and LG joined the battle, there may be oversupply in small-size OLED panels in 2018 (Figure 1).
Figure 1 The iPhone X sales situation is not as enthusiastic as expected, and there are rumors that it will be discontinued in 2018. Image source: Apple
Lin Zemin (picture 2), manager of the Industrial and Technical Research Center of the Industrial Research Institute, pointed out that at present, the iPhone X is still the largest user of small-size OLED screens. However, the sales volume of the iPhone X is far below the industry expectation, starting from the fourth quarter of 2017. See the relevant suppliers continue to repair production value estimates. At present, it can be seen that manufacturers at least reduce the estimated output value by more than 25%.
Figure 2 Lin Zemin, manager of the Industrial and Technical Research Center of the Industrial and Technological Research Institute, pointed out that starting from the fourth quarter of 2017, it will be possible to see the relevant suppliers continue to repair the output value of the iPhone X.
In 2017, Samsung has almost completely monopolized the market supply of small-size OLED panels, with a capacity ratio of 92%. However, the largest user iPhone X is not as hot as expected. The output value disclosed by the relevant suppliers shows that the output is being significantly revised down, and even the fastest will be discontinued in the second quarter of 2018. Therefore, in 2018, Samsung's small-size OLED panel is likely to face the dilemma of oversupply.
With China's BOE and LG (LG) investing in the small-size OLED market, even if it is not possible to immediately grab a certain market share, it will still be very strong for Samsung's price containment. The market share and price of small-size OLEDs may be completely different from the 2017 estimates.
Wide color gamut LCD performance is good OLED market hardship
At present, in the North American market, the cost of large-size OLED TV displays still needs 2 to 3 times that of LCDs. However, as the LCD camp is actively improving the backlight technology, the display quality of the LCD has also improved. According to the current show of major international manufacturers in major exhibitions, the performance of LCD TVs with wide color gamut technology is not worse than OLED. In light of this situation, it seems that the panel factory's expansion of the large-size OLED production line is not as necessary.
Although large-size OLED TV displays can achieve thinner, higher-contrast performance, consumers' thin and light requirements for home displays are not as demanding as mobile devices. Lin Zemin pointed out that Samsung's recent layout of large-size displays is still focused on LCD panels to actively invest in various technologies to improve contrast and color performance. The performance and sales of its products are not worse than those of LG's OLED TV monitors. Therefore, from the perspective of consumer response and vendor strategy, large-size OLED TV displays may not be seen in the home sector in the short term.
Lin Zemin estimates that even by 2020, the market share of OLED large-size TV monitors will probably not exceed 5%. The TV display market will still be dominated by LCDs in recent years.