The mainland panel factory is in full swing to open new capacity. According to the latest survey, the production capacity of TV panels of BOE, Huaxing Optoelectronics, New Energy of Rainbow Group and CLP Panda is fully open. Due to the large supply, even the average size of TV panels next year. Zoom in, the probability of oversupply is still high.
According to the latest estimate of Morgan Stanley, the supply of large-size TFT-LCD panels in the first half of next year will be 6% more than the demand, and 4% more in the whole year, which is a big increase from the 2% this year. On the other hand, the Chinese market accounted for more than 80% of the LED chip factory stocks surged, the overall inventory in the third quarter increased by 5% compared with the previous quarter, the annual growth rate reached 65%, with the consumer power down, the price may continue to fall.
The market hopes that Mini LED will play a new star in the industry, but the analysis of Morgan Stanley pointed out that the development of Mini LED has not yet reached the stage of rapid heavy volume, which is not enough to offset the inventory pressure of the whole industry. In contrast, optimistic about the continued use of OLED panels in smart phones, the penetration rate is expected to increase from 20% to 29% in 2020, mainly because OLED is thin, flexible and contrasting.
Among the OLED products, AMOLED is the most optimistic. According to Morgan Stanley, AMOLED provides better operating efficiency and image rendering effect than LCD panel. More importantly, the yield of AMOLEDs produced by BOE and other land factories has increased rapidly, driving shipments to gradually increase. This is in contrast to Samsung's recent production of AMOLEDs. It is not excluded that BOE and LGD will share the market share in the future.