DSCC Lowers 2018 OLED Market Revenue Forecast

- Mar 23, 2018-


The DSCC last week released the latest quarterly report of 2018 Quarterly OLED Shipment and Fab Utilization Report. According to some recent negative market conditions, such as the unsatisfactory sales of the iPhone X, the decrease in Samsung's capacity utilization rate and delays in some expansion of production, we have lowered the forecast for the OLED market revenue in 2018 and expect it to grow by only 30%. $30.3 billion in size.
As shown in Figure 1. From 2017 to 2022, our predicted annual compound growth rate will be reduced from 27% to 23%, and the market will reach 64.3 billion USD in 2022. Compared with the previous positive forecast of 79.6 billion USD, this market is still fast. Growth, most consumers will still prefer OLED, OLED production capacity will also grow rapidly. With everyone's preference, the growth rate is not as fast as previously expected.
Figure 1: Latest OLED Revenue and Growth Forecast

Source: DSCC’s Quarterly OLED Shipment and Fab Utilization Report
Smartphones still dominate the OLED market. Although revenue is expected to decline from 87% in 2018 to 79% in 2022, the annual market share of shipments is basically around 91%. From the perspective of display area, the market share of smartphones decreased from 64% in 2017 to a market share of 42% in 2022 as the TV size increased from 33% in 2017. In 50% of 2022, tablet PCs will be the third largest market share in the display area, accounting for 3.5% in 2022, as shown in Figure 2.
Our latest OLED smart phone panel forecast 518 million shipments in 2018, compared to the previous forecast of 622 million, a drop of 13%, but the annual growth rate is still 34% . In particular, the flexible panel has lowered its forecast by 22%, and shipments in 2018 will reach 238 million, but there is still an annual growth rate of 70%. The forecast of rigid OLED screens has also been lowered by 4%, but there is still an annual growth rate of 12% in 2018. The average selling price of OLED mobile phone panels will continue to show a downward trend due to low capacity utilization and lower flexible penetration rate. We currently see the average selling price of OLED panel in 2018 as 49 US dollars (the average value of the average flexibility). Our forecast was 56 US dollars. The flexible screen was replaced by the average price of 83 US dollars to replace the previous forecast of 90 US dollars. About 7%.
Figure 2: OLED Area Share by Application

Source: DSCC’s Quarterly OLED Shipment and Fab Utilization Report
OLED handset panel shipments are forecast to grow at a compound annual growth rate of 23% to 1.12 billion, which will exceed the usage of LCD panels in 2021, as shown in Figure 3. We believe that only a small amount of folded OLED mobile phone panels will be produced in 2018 and will grow to 108 million tablets in 2022, accounting for about 10% of the OLED mobile phone market and 5% of the overall display technology mobile phone market. The LCD mobile phone panel is expected to decrease from a 1.2 billion unit in 2017 to 843 million units in 2022, with a corresponding decrease in the production capacity of LCD panels.
Figure 3: OLED vs. LCD Smartphone Panel Unit Share

Source: DSCC’s Quarterly OLED Shipment and Fab Utilization Report