Display Market: LCD Or Will Turn To OLED

- Jan 23, 2019-

Since the small-pitch LED display was completely released in 2013, products with smaller pitches such as P1.2 and P1.0 have also been developed and produced, because of its inherent advantages of complete seamlessness and display color, and small spacing. The LED market has been ignited with unprecedented enthusiasm. However, according to the data of 2015, the LCD screen still occupies half of the display sales amount, and may turn to OLED in the future.

Small pitch LEDs are developing in the sky

In 2015, the sales volume of the global small-pitch LED screen market increased by 180%, reaching an unprecedented high value. Although the growth rate of China's largest market for small-pitch LED screens has dropped to over 80% this year, considering the global small-pitch LED screen field, China's leading position, its absolute increment is still leading the world. The increase in demand in Europe, America and the third world countries has more than doubled, and ultimately supported the high growth of the global market for small-pitch LED screens.

Looking at the future trend, the global small-pitch LED screen industry will not increase by less than 80% in 2016, and this speed is likely to last for about three years. In other words, the rapid growth of the small-pitch LED screen industry as an emerging technology is still accelerating: from the absolute increment, it takes three years to reach the peak of growth rate. At that time, small-pitch LED screens accounted for a total of sales in the entire video wall industry, eager to reach one-third, or even 40%. And from the perspective of profit, small-pitch LED screens will be the most "money-making" video wall technology category.

However, to achieve this growth goal, the small-pitch LED screen industry must rely on supply issues based on Chinese factories.

In 2015, the growth of the global market for small-pitch LED screens was greatly driven by the large-scale volume of China's domestic lamp manufacturers and 2020 specifications. This brings down the cost, stability and supply capacity of P2.0 and above standard small-pitch LED screen products required in the commercial, advertising, entertainment, cultural performance and other markets.

In 2016, China's local lamp-bead companies have already opened up the market and are close to the 1010 lamp bead products. This brings new energy to the market supply structure change of the small-pitch LED screen products below the P2.0 standard. The core of this change is: stable performance, efficient supply, and lower cost.

Of course, the development of the small-pitch LED screen market is also inseparable from the efforts of many international giants. However, from the perspective of terminal products, the small-pitch LED screen is not a “technology” or “market” monopoly industry, and its industry participation and the source of participating companies are fully diversified. This actually means that those companies that rely on Chinese factories, rather than those that attempt to have a complete industrial chain, will become the mainstay of market growth.

Of course, at the 2016 IFC show in the United States, the global giants such as Sony, Mitsubishi, NEC, Christie, and Samsung will contribute to the growth of the industry in the field of small-pitch LED screens, which will provide the best marketing resources. In other words, the participation of international giants is to “advertise” the entire industry, which is another catalyst for industry growth.

Small pitch LEDs are spliced by shoulder DLP, but non-replacement

In the global market, the reverse of the rapid growth of small-pitch LED screen products is that the high-end “Wang Wei” of traditional DLP splicing products has been surpassed.

It is expected that starting in 2015, DLP splicing will be in the overall state of the video wall market. Although only a few percentage points per year. But for industry confidence, it is also a big shock. This fatigue in the DLP splicing product market consists mainly of three reasons:

First, DLP splicing matures very early, market expansion is comprehensive, and potential incremental space is limited. Second, small-pitch LED screens in the field of broadcasting, entertainment, and other fields have indeed formed a certain alternative to DLP splicing—especially for applications requiring high color and brightness. Now there is a new product: small-pitch LEDs can be selected. Third, the global economic downturn has objectively contributed to the continued weakening of the main demand direction of DLP splicing – infrastructure, major industrial capacity, and so on.

In other words, even without the competition of small-pitch LED screens, it is not appropriate to report too high expectations for the global DLP splicing market. In fact, in addition to the fact that the Chinese market is dominated by government investment, the DLP splicing industry has stable growth expectations, and the chill of the global market is hard to fade in the short term.

This also reflects the particularity of the growth of small-pitch LED screens: it is not a substitute or grabbed someone else's rice bowl, more is to open up a lot of new applications: this with the small-pitch LED display color, brightness, contrast effects, the whole There is no gap effect, and the performance and price are constantly improving. -- Small-pitch LEDs make some of the previously impossible applications a reality.

For example, in the field of advertising, in-store stores in department stores require indoor displays: these screens must be high-definition, have brightness and color effects, and be large enough. The products that meet these requirements are mainly small-pitch LED screens. LCD splicing has gaps, single screen is not big enough; projection large screen is large enough, but the effect is not good under bright conditions; DLP splicing also faces the application bottleneck of gap, brightness and contrast in this environment.

Therefore, in 2015, the small-pitch LED screen has achieved the same total market volume as DLP splicing in the world, but the DLP splicing has not been “substantially shrinking”. Because of the market that they are concerned about, at least there is still a big difference.

The study believes that the market overlap of small-pitch LED screens and DLP splicing is mainly in the market below p1.5; now the sales of small-pitch LED screens are from P2.0-p4.0. Even if the small-pitch products in the future are more developed with a pitch of less than 1.5 mm, their market structure with DLP splicing has its advantages and the division of labor will not fundamentally change. The market overlap between the two will not be higher than 30%: that is, it is difficult for each other to pose a survival challenge.

There is competition, but the essence is division of labor: this is the basic relationship between small-pitch LED and DLP splicing. Even if the sales of small pitch LEDs exceed DLP stitching, it will not change the facts of this industry.

LCD is unstoppable, and the future will turn to OLED

In the global display market, liquid crystal has occupied half of the market according to the sales amount. If calculated according to the display area or the number of units, the proportion of liquid crystal products will reach 90%. Even if the small-pitch LED screens in the future create more market increments, LCD products will maintain their absolute dominance in the splicing wall under their own strong growth.

In the big screen wall market, the reason why LCD can win is simple: cheap. This is extremely important for a market where security is the mainstay. The coverage of modern security products in global applications is limited to emerging countries such as developed countries and China with strong social management capabilities. The security technology service is now largely less than half of the human population. Even in the Chinese market, which already has a large number of security systems, the popularity of security is still very low in the vast rural areas.

This is actually saying: good enough, cheap enough, then there is enough potential space. This is the reason why market sales can grow in the context of lower prices of LCD video wall products in the past three years.

However, the LCD splicing wall industry has its own huge problems: First, the gross profit of LCD splicing walls is often less than one-tenth or even lower than DLP or small-pitch LEDs. In some cases, the product is basically loss-making, relying on the entire system solution, as well as post-maintenance to make money. Second, liquid crystal display technology faces the substitution of future OLEDs and the like. Compared to backlights and self-illuminating OLED products, liquid crystals have a "cost disadvantage" at the same yield. If the performance bottleneck is not enough to make LCD lose in competition with OLED, the cost disadvantage will be A fatal blow. Fortunately, for most security display companies, LCD units and OLED units have strong production commonalities. This transformation will not be difficult: the biggest change is that companies with backlight modules may need to do this. Some production lines think about the back road.

For the OLED's alternative to liquid crystal, the video wall industry should see more "new value": such as the creative plasticity of flexible OLED splicing, the thinner and lighter characteristics of OLED products, and the OLED must have lower after the printing process matures. Cost, which will provide unprecedented imagination for market growth.

Stable, but also expand, when the large screen wall accelerates

From the two technical products of liquid crystal (including OLED) splicing and small-pitch LED splicing, the growth of the global video wall market is eager to maintain double-digit, or even more than 20%. And this trend will not end in the short term.

Because all growth is carried out around the premise of digitization and informationization. The video wall acts as an information terminal, and its development depends on the prosperity of the entire information industry. For example, smart cities, Internet of Things, new security, intelligent manufacturing, intelligent service robots, big data, e-commerce... The advancement of information in every field means “fueling” for the development of the big screen industry.

However, in terms of DLP splicing products, the overall market is in a stable state: the growth of future growth is difficult to exceed 5%, and the fluctuations are difficult to exceed 5%. Even with the development of new light source technologies such as lasers, the maturity and stability of DLP stitching will not be broken. This is the reason why many DLP splicing companies have increased the small-pitch LED screen and LCD splicing product line in recent years. Although the original business is temporarily safe and worry-free, it does not want to be completely absent from the new opportunities, but also plan for the distant future. Can not be packed in a basket). -- Small pitch LEDs and LCD splicing, never give up on the expectations of the DLP ace market control room.

In summary, the global big screen market will exhibit completely different but comprehensive structural opportunities in the rapid development. New applications, new additions, high-end markets, and price war competitions will all be among them.