Bernstein visited the Asian electronics supply chain and met with 23 companies and experts, claiming that the industry has China Syndrome. The land factory is crazy to purchase upstream equipment manufacturers, but over-investment may make OLED panels hit big in 2018. trouble.
The Motley Fool, Barronˋs reported on the 16th, Bernstein's Alberto Moel, Mark Newman, Stacy Rasgon and others reported that the panel part, the land factory sprint OLED production capacity is beyond expectations, equipment and materials business is this OLED capital The beneficiaries of the spending cycle. There is a similar situation in the semiconductor part. The land factory is investing heavily in 3D NAND, and the demand for semiconductor equipment is soaring. In terms of memory, DRAM supply is still tight at present, and DRAM quotation remains optimistic in 2017.
Bernstein warned that the land factory is too aggressive to expand production capacity, and OLEDs may have oversupply doubts in the future. According to the report, Bernstein pointed out two weeks ago that the 10th generation of liquid crystal (LCD) and OLED capital expenditures will surge, and big problems will occur in the second half of 2017 and 2018. The Asian visitor also confirmed that China-based panel makers are desperately expanding OLED production capacity (see chart).
However, current OLED panels are still hot. The report said that in the second half of this year, Samsung is expected to ship 80 million sets of smart machine OLED panels to Apple. OLED profit is better than expected, and operating profit margin has increased from 20% to 25%. Since OLEDs are mainly supplied to Samsung Electronics and Apple, although China's smart machine OEMs are willing to pay OLEDs for double the price of LCD panels, they still can't get the goods. The Apple OLED contract is a Take-or-pay contract. The average price of a flexible OLED panel is $75-80, which is much higher than the $30 for a hard OLED panel.
The Japanese version of the Wall Street Journal (WSJ) reported on the 7th that according to people familiar with the details, Sharp plans to expand its OLED panel production plan by about 100 billion yen, and plans to have more seats in Japan next year (2018). The factory's monthly output of OLED panels will be reduced to 30,000 units at a minimum, and the investment will be 74% higher than the amount announced in September last year. The move is mainly to catch up with Samsung and grab Apple iPhone orders.